Point Spread To Moneyline Conversion Basketball
- Point Spread To Moneyline Conversion Basketball Scores
- Ncaa Basketball Moneyline
- Point Spread To Moneyline Conversion Basketball Predictions
All you need to do is enter the spread, the juice on each side and choose the sport. In the example above, we're looking at a typical seven-point spread in the NFL with standard -110 juice on each side. Per the converter, you can expect the favorite to have a moneyline around -346 and the underdog to have a moneyline around +268. NBA Point Spreads and NCAA Lines Reviewed. After point spreads are established, you can then look at the moneyline bet. This is generally correlated to the point spread except it shows how money you can win based on your wager. Some sports do not use a point spread but rather just stick to a moneyline bet. For example, a team that was a -7. Taking a team on the moneyline means you are wagering on a team to win the game outright. The money lines are adjusted based on who is more likely to win the game (based on the point spread). Let’s use an example. A 4-point favorite in NCAA basketball might be listed at -204.
There are sports in which the Cinderella story is every fan’s delight. Basketball is not one of them.
Not only do fans want to see established hoops heroes collect championships, but bettors tend to pick favorites a lot more than the underdogs…especially newbie gamblers.
Point Spread To Moneyline Conversion Basketball Scores
Many people see teams favored to prevail by a set number of points, and instantly think that the team is a lock. They focus on whether or not the favorites will cover the points, disregarding that the underdog could finish on top on the scoreboard altogether.
It should come as no surprise that as a team is favored to out-score its opponent by greater points, the higher the probability becomes that they will prevail outright. Before you look at the charts (if you haven’t already), guess which percentage among favorited teams triumph when they are favored by 3.5 points. Once you have that number, look below at our table and see if you were close. Most of the general public will completely overshoot the %.
NBA Moneyline Conversion – Implied Outright Winning % by Spread
| Favorite | ML | Winning % | Underdog | ML | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | -115 | 51.10% | 1 | -104 | 48.90% |
| -1.5 | -121 | 52.30% | 1.5 | -100 | 47.70% |
| -2 | -132 | 54.30% | 2 | +109 | 45.70% |
| -2.5 | -143 | 56.30% | 2.5 | +118 | 43.70% |
| -3 | -156 | 58.20% | 3 | +129 | 41.80% |
| -3.5 | -170 | 60.10% | 3.5 | +140 | 39.90% |
| -4 | -184 | 61.90% | 4 | +150 | 38.10% |
| -4.5 | -199 | 63.60% | 4.5 | +162 | 36.40% |
| -5 | -222 | 65.80% | 5 | +179 | 34.20% |
| -5.5 | -247 | 68.00% | 5.5 | +198 | 32.00% |
| -6 | -276 | 70.10% | 6 | +219 | 29.90% |
| -6.5 | -309 | 72.10% | 6.5 | +243 | 27.90% |
| -7 | -349 | 74.20% | 7 | +270 | 25.80% |
| -7.5 | -397 | 76.30% | 7.5 | +302 | 23.70% |
| -8 | -458 | 78.40% | 8 | +341 | 21.60% |
| -8.5 | -536 | 80.50% | 8.5 | +388 | 19.50% |
| -9 | -656 | 82.80% | 9 | +456 | 17.20% |
| -9.5 | -832 | 85.20% | 9.5 | +545 | 14.80% |
| -10 | -1069 | 87.30% | 10 | +651 | 12.70% |
If your guess was close to 60%, then you have a pretty good understanding of what it means for a side to be favored by only 3.5. Those of you who guessed a lot higher than 60%? Don’t fret. It is a very common mistake. Now, guess what percentage of 3.5 ATS favorites actually cover. Check your answer with the table below.
Actual Winning Percentage by Spread in Basketball
| Favorite | Winning % | Underdog | Winning % |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1 | 45.40% | 1 | 52.00% |
| -1.5 | 48.10% | 1.5 | 51.90% |
| -2 | 49.50% | 2 | 46.70% |
| -2.5 | 46.90% | 2.5 | 53.10% |
| -3 | 48.50% | 3 | 47.20% |
| -3.5 | 46.50% | 3.5 | 53.50% |
| -4 | 52.80% | 4 | 45.30% |
| -4.5 | 50.40% | 4.5 | 49.60% |
| -5 | 46.00% | 5 | 49.50% |
| -5.5 | 51.30% | 5.5 | 48.70% |
| -6 | 50.60% | 6 | 45.80% |
| -6.5 | 50.80% | 6.5 | 49.20% |
| -7 | 47.20% | 7 | 48.10% |
| -7.5 | 52.30% | 7.5 | 47.70% |
| -8 | 53.10% | 8 | 43.80% |
| -8.5 | 50.80% | 8.5 | 49.20% |
| -9 | 50.20% | 9 | 46.40% |
| -9.5 | 51.40% | 9.5 | 48.60% |
| -10 | 44.70% | 10 | 52.80% |
It might not be a huge surprise that 3.5-point favorites only prevail in 60% of games played, but the fact that they don’t even cover 50% of those games should be. Most gamblers assume that when a team has been favored at 3.5-points they are likely to cover.
In reality the underdog not only covers, but prevails on a scoreboard in 40% of contests played. The cash player can be tricked into taking small favorites because of how much the line is over-valued. If I had asked what percent of 10-point favorites prevail outright, your guess would have likely been a lot closer to the actual number.
Ncaa Basketball Moneyline
Remember, a sporting event may pit 2 teams with disparate records and publicity. But it’s still a contest between 2 opponents on the same college or professional level.
Point Spread To Moneyline Conversion Basketball Predictions
Always give the ‘dog a thorough evaluation. There’s often value to be had.